Fall Line analytics is undertaking a joint-research project with the University of San Francisco, examining precinct-level results from Prop 8 from November, 2008. We'll be incorporating years of election results, and Census data for all California voting precincts. Below is the first-pass at Prop 8 (Same-Sex Marraige Ban) from November 2008. Since this will be back on the ballot in 2012 (if not earlier), one can see how useful this kind of work will be.
The second map below is a bit more analytical, where the flagged precincts are where Democratic registration is over 65% and yet they voted yes on Prop 8 (> 50%). Notice where the precincts cluster: Bay Area suburbs, Central Valley, and LA. With our demographic project, we'll be able to tell exactly who lives in these precincts. This kind of advanced targeting work can be used on any campaign from any year, and we believe out statewide census-data-for-every-precinct is the first of its kind.
The second display is a boxplot of California Assembly districts, ordered by mean CPPI score. The boxes are colored by whether the Assemblymember is Democrat (blue) or Republican (red). Note how well they fall on either side of CPPI = 50 (the middle), which is a transition area. This can be done for any political geography, and can reveal where the representative may not "fit" the district.
For more information, contact info@flanalytics.com.
